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Assumption Mapping

Listing the beliefs a plan depends on, then sorting them by importance and evidence.

What is Assumption Mapping?

Listing the beliefs a plan depends on, then sorting them by importance and evidence.

What you learn

Test first the belief that matters most and is least known.

When it helps

a plan feels certain but rests on beliefs nobody has tested.

Use it at work

  1. List every belief that must be true for the plan to work.
  2. Mark how much each one matters.
  3. Mark how much evidence backs each one.
  4. Test the one that matters most and is least known.

Your output

List the beliefs your project depends on. Mark how much each matters and how much evidence backs it. Test the top one this week.

Watch for

Testing what is easiest to test, or what you’re already sure of.

Related practices

Sources

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