Shape
Uncertainty Communication
Showing how sure a prediction is, in a way that helps people decide what to do.
What is Uncertainty Communication?
Showing how sure a prediction is, in a way that helps people decide what to do.
What you learn
Show uncertainty in a way that changes what people do.
When it helps
a prediction looks more certain than it is, or people don’t know what a score means.
Use it at work
- Show predictions as ranges, not single numbers.
- Say what the uncertainty means for the person.
- Suggest what to do if they can’t take the risk.
- Avoid raw scores people can’t use.
Your output
Find one prediction your product shows. Display it as a range and say what people should do differently because of the uncertainty.
Watch for
Showing a prediction as certain, or as a score people can’t use.
Related practices
Sources
- People + AI Guidebook: Explainability + Trust
- HAX Guideline 2: Make clear how well the system can do what it can do
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