Validate
Sensitivity Analysis
Testing how much a decision depends on the numbers you’re unsure about.
What is Sensitivity Analysis?
Testing how much a decision depends on the numbers you’re unsure about.
What you learn
Find where the decision flips, and check whether that’s likely.
When it helps
a decision rests on estimates, like a forecast, a cost or a growth rate.
Use it at work
- List the uncertain numbers in the decision.
- Give each one a likely low and high value.
- Move each across its range, and watch the decision.
- Where it flips, get better evidence or choose the safer option.
Your output
For your next decision, move each uncertain number across its likely range and note where the decision flips.
Watch for
Deciding on a single forecast number.
Related practices
Sources
- Systems Engineering Handbook: Appendix
- An Introductory Guide to Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
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